A Climatic Utility Index for the Analysis of the Expected Changes of Cherry and Sour Cherry Production in Central Hungary, Regarding Climate Change

Production security and risk of a given plant are basically determined by climatic factors the change of which is a great challenge for the growers. This paper focuses on the climatic conditions of cherry and sour cherry production in Central Hungary in three time periods: 1961-1990 as a reference, 2021-2050 as the near future and 2071-2100 for the long-term analysis. A climatic utility index is introduced based on climatic factors and experts’ suggestions and calculations. Expected future changes are evaluated by using the predictions of regional climate model RegCM3.1 downscaled to the Carpathian Basin. Results show that in the near future fruit cracking risk of cherry could be higher, but in overall the expected changes are mostly favourable for both cherry and sour cherry production in Central-Hungary. By the end of the century irrigation may be required to maintain the production security and the high standard quality of production. It is also advised to re-evaluate the varieties according to the indicated changes, as a new orchard planted nowadays will have many productive years in the considered future periods.